| dc.contributor.author | ['Liberty, Iche Andriyani', 'Fadilah, Mariatul', 'Josef, Hari Kusnanto'] | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-09-23T10:37:12Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-09-23T10:37:12Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021-01-02 00:00:00 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | - | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://jurnal.ugm.ac.id/rpcpe/article/view/57577 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://digilib.fisipol.ugm.ac.id/repo/handle/15717717/33278 | |
| dc.description.abstract | What is the scientific prediction for the Covid-19 pandemic? Currently, as of April 8, the world’s confirmed cases have over 1.2 million, the death of more than 72 thousand. For Indonesia, today 2,738 confirmed cases, 221 deaths, and those who recovered 204.1-3. The update on April 8 today, WHO itself estimates that the Covid-19 Contagion Rate is 1.4 to 2.5. This will form the basis of predictive modeling. Several studies conducted show that currently the basic reproduction number or R0 of Covid-19 is higher than SARS. Initially in the range of 2-3 or an average of 2.5, currently R0 is 1.4 - 6.9. This is what will form the basis of modeling. R0 or the basic reproduction number shows how many people a person can become infected with. If the R0 is more than 1, we are in an epidemic status as it is today, R0 = 1 endemic, and our R0 is less than 1 we have eradicated. R0 itself consists of three components, namely p: transmission, c: number of contact, and D which is the duration of the infection itself. These calculations are the main points in modeling. | |
| dc.format | application/pdf | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | |
| dc.publisher | Faculty of Medicine, Public Health, and Nursing | |
| dc.relation.uri | https://jurnal.ugm.ac.id/rpcpe/article/view/57577/30307 | |
| dc.rights | ['Copyright (c) 2020 Iche Andriyani Liberty, Mariatul Fadilah, Hari Kusnanto Josef', 'http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0'] | |
| dc.subject | nan | |
| dc.title | Scientific Prediction of the Covid-19 Pandemic and What Should Society Do? | |
| dc.type | Article | |
| dc.identifier.oai | oai:jurnal.ugm.ac.id:article/57577 | |
| dc.journal.info | ['Review of Primary Care Practice and Education; Vol 3, No 3 (2020): September; 89-93', '2620-5572', '2613-943X'] | |
