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Dynamic analysis and optimal control of a fractional-order epidemic model with nucleic acid detection and individual protective awareness: A Malaysian case study

dc.contributor.authorRui Hu
dc.contributor.authorElayaraja Aruchunan
dc.contributor.authorMuhamad Hifzhudin Noor Aziz
dc.contributor.authorCheng Cheng
dc.contributor.authorBenchawan Wiwatanapataphee
dc.contributor.otherInstitute of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Malaya 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
dc.contributor.otherDepartment of Decision Science, Universiti Malaya 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
dc.contributor.otherInstitute of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Malaya 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
dc.contributor.otherInstitute of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Malaya 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
dc.contributor.otherSchool of Elec Eng, Comp and Math Sci (EECMS), Faculty of Science and Engineering, Curtin University, Kent Street, Bently, Perth 6102 WA, Australia
dc.date.accessioned2025-08-27T02:32:32Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-08T08:06:51Z
dc.date.available2025-10-08T08:06:51Z
dc.date.issued2025-07
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/math.2025724
dc.identifier.urihttp://digilib.fisipol.ugm.ac.id/repo/handle/15717717/35599
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we present a Caputo fractional-order COVID-19 model that incorporates nucleic acid testing and individual protective awareness to capture memory effects and the interaction of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We proved the existence, non-negativity, and boundedness of solutions and derived the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ using the next-generation matrix method. Stability analysis showed that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $R_{0} < 1$, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $R_{0}>1$. Numerical simulations using the PECE scheme of the Adams–Bashforth–Moulton method validate the theoretical results and demonstrate the role of the fractional-order parameter $\alpha$ in capturing transmission memory. Model parameters were estimated using a hybrid genetic algorithm-least squares approach calibrated with Malaysian COVID-19 data. The proposed model outperformed both integer-order and simplified fractional SEIR models in replicating real-world dynamics. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses identified protective awareness and testing intensity as key factors in mitigating epidemic severity. We also formulated an optimal control problem, applying Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive six intervention strategies. Cost-effectiveness analysis showed that combined interventions are superior to single strategies, proving effective and economically viable under Malaysia's healthcare constraints.
dc.language.isoEN
dc.publisherAIMS Press
dc.subject.lccMathematics
dc.titleDynamic analysis and optimal control of a fractional-order epidemic model with nucleic acid detection and individual protective awareness: A Malaysian case study
dc.typeArticle
dc.description.keywordscovid-19
dc.description.keywordsfractional order
dc.description.keywordscaputo operator
dc.description.keywordsnon-pharmacological interventions
dc.description.keywordsoptimal control
dc.description.keywordscost-efficacy analysis
dc.description.pages16157-16199
dc.description.doi10.3934/math.2025724
dc.title.journalAIMS Mathematics
dc.identifier.e-issn2473-6988
dc.identifier.oai73ab6bb5d8984c429207d42c157699bf
dc.journal.infoVolume 10, Issue 7


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